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SUMMARY:Risk and Natural Catastrophes - Professor Mark Bailey\, Armagh Obs
 ervatory
DTSTART:20100226T173000Z
DTEND:20100226T183000Z
UID:TALK19085@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Janet Gibson
DESCRIPTION:Biography\n\nProfessor Mark E. Bailey MBE\n\nAstrophysicist an
 d Director of Armagh Observatory. He obtained his PhD at the University of
  Edinburgh in 1978 with a thesis on the evolution of active galactic nucle
 i. In recent years his research has focused on\nareas closer to home: the 
 dynamical evolution of  comets\, asteroids and meteoroid streams\; solar s
 ystem - terrestrial interrelationships\; and aspects of the comet and aste
 roid impact hazard. The asteroid (4050)\,\ndiscovered in 1976 by C.-I. Lag
 erkvist\, was named Mebailey in March 1990 for his work on the dynamics an
 d origin of comets. He is the co-author of `The Origin of Comets' (Pergamo
 n\, 1990).\n\nAbstract\n\nNatural catastrophes – rare\, high-consequence
  events – present us with a unique conjunction of problems so far as ris
 k is concerned. First\, they can have an extremely long recurrence interva
 l\, so long that the greatest may not have occurred within living human me
 mory. Secondly\, the effects of events with which we are all too familiar\
 , for example earthquakes\, floods\, volcanoes and storms\, are easily tru
 mped by the impacts of objects – comets and asteroids – that reach Ear
 th from outer space\; and thirdly\, the largest of these events have a glo
 bal reach\, in principle threatening not just our civilisation but perhaps
  life on Earth itself. However\, recognising that such events occur very r
 arely\, should we ‘make hay while the sun shines’ and ignore\, ostrich
 -like\, the significant actuarial risk\; or should we seek to understand t
 he phenomena and develop strategies to mitigate the threat and perhaps tec
 hnologies to avert it? Our response often depends less on a purely rationa
 l assessment than on personal circumstances and how we have been brought u
 p\, but in any case\, the nature of the risks\, which are poorly understoo
 d\, means that we must be prepared to handle the law of unintended consequ
 ences (i.e. could our actions make things worse?). We must also be prepare
 d to explore what happens if\, perhaps inevitably\, our current scientific
  understanding turns out to be less certain than many experts believe.
LOCATION:LMH\, Lady Mitchell Hall
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