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SUMMARY:Improving the representativeness of UK’s national COVID-19 Infec
 tion Survey through spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification - K
 oen Pouwels\, Oxford
DTSTART:20230217T120000Z
DTEND:20230217T130000Z
UID:TALK197104@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Paula Smith
DESCRIPTION:To inform decisions around SARSCoV2 mitigation and vaccination
  measures\, policy makers ideally would have population-representative est
 imates of how many people are infected with SARSCoV2 and have antibody lev
 els above meaningful thresholds in small areas at different time points. H
 ere\, we apply spatiotemporal regression and post-stratification models to
  UK’s national COVID19 Infection Survey (CIS) to obtain representative t
 emporal estimates of PCR positivity and antibody prevalence a the (sub)nat
 ional level\, and for different ages and ethnicities. Between Monday 7 Dec
 ember 2020 and Wednesday 4 May 2022\, 6\,496\,052 PCR test and 1\,941\,333
  anti-spike IgG antibody tests results were available for analyses. Not ac
 counting for vaccination status - as done in virtually all outputs from th
 e ONS - through post-stratification led to small underestimation of PCR po
 sitivity\, but more substantial overestimations of antibody levels in the 
 population. There was marked variation in the contribution of different ar
 eas and age-groups to each wave. Future analyses of infectious disease sur
 veys should take into major drivers of outcomes of interest\, with vaccina
 tion being an important factor to consider. A large part of the variation 
 in the ranking of small-areas in terms of their SARSCoV2 prevalence could 
 by explained by the degree of urbanicity and deprivation\, highlighting th
 e inequality in risk of SARSCoV2 infections. 
LOCATION:Zoom
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