BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Bayesian explanationism - Stephan Hartmann (MCMP\, LMU Munich)
DTSTART:20230524T120000Z
DTEND:20230524T133000Z
UID:TALK200020@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Jacob Stegenga
DESCRIPTION:Peter Lipton famously argued that we want our scientific theor
 ies to be lovely and likely\, that is\, we want them to provide good expla
 nations and to be very probable (if not true). Unfortunately\, there is a 
 tension between these two epistemic virtues\, and it is not clear how they
  are related. Thus\, the question arises whether the Bayesian (who prefers
  likely theories) and the explanationist (who prefers lovely theories) can
  be friends\, as Lipton claims. Although much ink has been spilled over th
 is question\, in this talk I want to take a fresh look at it and make two 
 points: First\, I argue that successfully providing an explanation is an e
 xample of non-empirical evidence in favour of the theory in question. This
  point can be made more precise by a simple Bayesian model\, which also pr
 ovides (as a bonus point\, so to speak) a justification for the bonus poin
 t approach to explanationism inspired by van Fraassen and championed by Do
 uven – at least if certain conditions are met. Second\, I investigate ho
 w the strength of an explanation – its explanatory power – can be meas
 ured in Bayesian terms\, and show how this all fits nicely into a coherent
 ist epistemology of science.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Department of History and Philosophy of Science
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR