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SUMMARY:Approximating First Passage and Peak Timing Distributions for Epid
 emics - Jacob Curran-Sebastian\, University of Manchester
DTSTART:20230524T110000Z
DTEND:20230524T120000Z
UID:TALK201343@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Ciara Dangerfield
DESCRIPTION:Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak is 
 an important part of epidemic forecasting. The time taken for an outbreak 
 to become large is inherently stochastic\, however\, the disease dynamics 
 can be well approximated by a deterministic model once a sufficient number
  of cases is reached. We present analytic and numerical methods for approx
 imating the distribution of times at which a given number of cases is reac
 hed using a branching process model\, known as the First Passage Time (FPT
 ) distribution. Once a threshold number of cases\, which we denote Z^*\, h
 as been reached\, we project the FPT distribution forward in time using a 
 deterministic model in order to obtain the peak timing distribution. Impor
 tantly\, our results require a fraction of the computational cost of runni
 ng full Monte Carlo Simulations. We begin with a simple SIR model and exte
 nd the results to include more general multitype models. 
LOCATION:Zoom
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