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SUMMARY:BSU Seminar: 'Bayesian analysis of diffusion-driven multi-type epi
 demic models with application to COVID-19' - Dr Lampros Bouranis\, Athens 
 University of Economics and Business
DTSTART:20230606T130000Z
DTEND:20230606T140000Z
UID:TALK201895@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Alison Quenault
DESCRIPTION:We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to
  model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily a
 ge-stratified mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rat
 es in populations containing multiple types of individual is reconstructed
  via an appropriate dimension-reduction formulation driven by independent 
 diffusion processes assigned to the key epidemiological parameters. A suit
 ably tailored Susceptible-Exposed-Infected -Removed (SEIR) compartmental m
 odel is used to capture the latent counts of infections and to account for
  fluctuations in transmission influenced by phenomena like public health i
 nterventions and changes in human behaviour. We analyze the outbreak of CO
 VID-19 in Greece and Austria and validate the proposed model using the est
 imated counts of cumulative infections from a large-scale seroprevalence s
 urvey in England. This is joint work with Nikolaos Demiris (AUEB)\, Konsta
 ntinos Kalogeropoulos (LSE) and Ioannis Ntzoufras (AUEB).\n\narXiv link: h
 ttps://aps.arxiv.org/abs/2211.15229\nCRAN: https://cran.r-project.org/web/
 packages/Bernadette/index.html\nGithub repository: https://github.com/bern
 adette-eu/Bernadette
LOCATION:Online Seminar
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