BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk// X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Parallel Universes\, Parallel Processing: Using expired weather fo recasts to supply up to 10 000 years of weather data (on an HPC cluster) - Petr Dolezal DTSTART:20230721T120000Z DTEND:20230721T130000Z UID:TALK202528@talks.cam.ac.uk CONTACT:114742 DESCRIPTION:Probabilistic approaches are essential for modelling future re newable electricity systems due to the inherent uncertainty in weather for ecasting. Conventional methods employ historical weather data\, but this r estricts the range of scenarios to the last four decades\, limiting the ex ploration of rare or extreme conditions.\n\nIn this research\, I pioneer a n innovative strategy leveraging expired ensemble weather forecasts from t he European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to dramatica lly extend the dataset for scenarios\, potentially presenting up to 10\,00 0 years of synthetic weather data. These ensemble forecasts\, initialized from slightly perturbed snapshots of atmospheric conditions\, diverge over time due to weather's chaotic nature. Consequently\, their late-stage pre dictions provide independent yet physically plausible projections of what the weather could have been\, preserving correct spatial correlations.\n\n This presentation will further discuss the methods employed for the parall el processing of this expansive dataset\, made possible through high-perfo rmance computing. By parallelizing the computations across the dataset\, w e have been able to manage the vast amount of data effectively\, enabling more efficient processing and analysis.\n\n[1] European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Model Ensemble extended foreca st https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-vi\n\nPetr is a PhD stu dent from the first cohort of the AI for Environmental Risk CDT\, looking at innovative ways to model\, understand and bring to existence a future c arbon-neutral electricity grid. LOCATION:FW 11\, William Gates Building. Zoom link: https://cl-cam-ac-uk.z oom.us/j/4361570789?pwd=Nkl2T3ZLaTZwRm05bzRTOUUxY3Q4QT09&\;from=addon END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR