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SUMMARY:BSU Seminar: &quot\;Dynamic survival analysis: modelling the hazar
 d function via ordinary differential equations&quot\; - Dr F. Javier Rubio
 \, University College London
DTSTART:20231024T130000Z
DTEND:20231024T140000Z
UID:TALK207391@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Alison Quenault
DESCRIPTION:The hazard function represents one of the main quantities of i
 nterest in the analysis of survival data. I will present a general approac
 h for modelling the dynamics of the hazard function using systems of auton
 omous ordinary differential equations (ODEs). This modelling approach can 
 be used to provide qualitative and quantitative analyses of the evolution 
 of the hazard function over time. Our proposal capitalises on the extensiv
 e literature of ODEs which\, in particular\, allow for establishing basic 
 rules or laws on the dynamics of the hazard function via the use of autono
 mous ODEs. We show how to implement the proposed modelling framework in ca
 ses where there is an analytic solution to the system of ODEs or where an 
 ODE solver is required to obtain a numerical solution. Although I will foc
 us on the use of a Bayesian modelling approach\, the proposed methodology 
 can also be coupled with maximum likelihood estimation. I will present a c
 ase study using real data to illustrate the use of the proposed approach a
 nd to highlight the interpretability of the corresponding models. I will c
 onclude with a discussion on potential extensions of our work and strategi
 es to include covariates into our framework.
LOCATION:MRC Biostatistics Unit\, East Forvie Building\, Forvie Site Robin
 son Way Cambridge CB2 0SR.
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