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SUMMARY:Revisiting the Myth of Nuclear Deterrence: A Wake-up Call for Prol
 iferation Optimists - Niv Farago (Hughes Hall)
DTSTART:20091117T173000Z
DTEND:20091117T190000Z
UID:TALK20952@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Ilya Berkovich
DESCRIPTION:The prospect of a nuclear Iran is one of the urgent challenges
  facing the Obama administration. This\, in turn\, brings the debate betwe
 en proliferation pessimists and optimists back to center stage. Again\, mo
 thballed contentions that predict systemic stability based on the ostensib
 le success of nuclear deterrence in containing and limiting conflicts duri
 ng the bi polar era are taken out of the closet. They meet well-known coun
 ter-arguments that highlight the danger inherited in the post Cold War mul
 ti-polar subsystems' proclivity towards instability\, which might entail a
  nuclear catastrophe. However\, a closer look at both eras reveals that th
 e nature of conflict\, rather than the systemic constraints under which it
  occurs\, should be the decisive factor in predicting nuclear deterrence's
  ability to prevent\, or limit\, military confrontations. In this regard\,
  the nature of a certain conflict has to do more with the actors/participa
 nts' perspective of the issue in dispute-i.e.\, defending/reunifying the h
 omeland\, or rather seeking peripheral influence/hegemony-and less with th
 e systemic structures in which they operate. Hence\, in view of the curren
 t conflicts in the Middle East\, there is no room for proliferation fatali
 sm. Nuclear proliferation is bound to court instability and should be prev
 ented.
LOCATION:Boys Smith Room\, Fisher Building\, St. John’s College
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