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SUMMARY:The Evolving Relative Role of Stratospheric Ozone and Greenhouse G
 asses in Modifying the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink from 1950-2100 - Tereza 
 Jarníková\, University of East Anglia
DTSTART:20240209T130000Z
DTEND:20240209T140000Z
UID:TALK210739@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Birgit Rogalla
DESCRIPTION:Southern Ocean winds have strengthened and moved poleward in t
 he latter half of the 20th century\, which has been attributed to the depl
 etion of stratospheric ozone and to climate warming from rising greenhouse
  gas concentrations. Both ozone recovery and changing greenhouse gas conce
 ntrations are expected to continue modulating wind structure throughout th
 e 21st century. Here\, we quantify the relative roles of ozone and greenho
 use gases on Southern Ocean wind structure from 1950-2100 using the UK Ear
 th System Model (UKESM1) model output\, with a combination of three scenar
 ios of ozone and two scenarios of greenhouse gas evolution. Both ozone dep
 letion and increases in greenhouse gas concentration act to increase wind 
 speed over the Southern Ocean. The influence of ozone is predominant in su
 mmer winds\, while the influence of greenhouse gases acts in all seasons. 
 We show that wind speeds return close to their original levels by the end 
 of the 21st century under a low-greenhouse gas scenario with ozone recover
 y. The influence of ozone on wind speed was dominant in the 1950-2000 time
 -period\, but not in the 21st Century when the influence of greenhouse gas
 es becomes two to three times larger than that of ozone\, even in the low 
 emissions scenario. We find significant effects of both ozone scenario and
  greenhouse gas emissions on physical-oceanographic variables (sea surface
  temperature\, mixed layer depth\, and overturning circulation). Finally\,
  we quantify the relative contributions of these physical changes to the e
 volving carbon sink of the Southern Ocean\, and discuss how wind-induced p
 hysical changes can alter ecosystem processes and the associated carbon ex
 port to the deep ocean.
LOCATION:BAS Seminar Room 1\; https://ukri.zoom.us/j/96997977888
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