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SUMMARY:Short term forecasting of Acute Respiratory Infections and their i
 mpact on NHS hospital pressures for situational awareness over Winter. - J
 onathon Mellor (UKHSA)
DTSTART:20240124T140000Z
DTEND:20240124T150000Z
UID:TALK211132@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Ciara Dangerfield
DESCRIPTION:Mitigations put in place during the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic supres
 sed the transmission of seasonal respiratory viruses. There was an anticip
 ated resurgence of non-COVID-19 seasonal respiratory diseases in Winter 20
 22-23 which were much harder to predict following extremely low pandemic b
 aselines. These diseases caused an additive burden on healthcare systems\,
  in the context of ongoing COVID-19 waves. We developed modelling methods 
 to short term forecast a range of acute respiratory infections (COVID-19\,
  Influenza\, RSV) at a range of geographies and metrics meaningful to heal
 thcare managers. These forecasts used a range of Generalised Additive Mode
 ls\, time series techniques\, leading indicators\, and ensemble methods to
  improve assessments of trends.
LOCATION:Zoom
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