BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk// X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:'Everything you always wanted to know about Atomic Warfare but wer e afraid to ask': Nuclear Strategy in t he Ukraine War era - Demetrius Floudas\, Cambridge Existential Risks Initi ative &\; I. Kant University DTSTART:20240229T180000Z DTEND:20240229T200000Z UID:TALK212134@talks.cam.ac.uk CONTACT:D. A. Floudas DESCRIPTION:*IMPORTANT U P D A T E : YOU CAN NOW WATCH THE LECTURE "BY CLICKING HERE*":https://youtu.be/_MkM2nGxg1o\n\nThursday 29 February 2024 \, 6:00 for 6:15 pm\n\n"*Queen's Lecture Theatre\, Emmanuel College\, Univ ersity of Cambridge*":https://www.admin.cam.ac.uk/reporter/2023-24/weekly/ 6729/section7.shtml#heading2-16\n\n\nThe ongoing conflict in Ukraine const itutes a poignant reminder of the enduring relevance and potential devasta tion associated with nuclear weapons. For decades\, the possibility of su ch catastrophic conflict has not seemed so imminent as in the current worl d affairs.\n\nThis lecture presents a comprehensive analysis of nuclear st rategy for the 21st century. By examining the evolving geostrategic lands cape the talk illuminates key concepts such as nuclear posture\, credible deterrence\, first & second strike capabilities\, flexible response\, EMP\ , variable yield\, counterforce & countervalue\, limited war and escalatio n dominance\, thereby providing a nuanced understanding of the delicate ba lance of power in the nuclear arena in modern conflicts. Furthermore\, thi s lecture concentrates on the era that started with the war in Ukraine\, o ffering insights into how recent geopolitical developments influence nucle ar doctrines. \n\nThrough conceivable real-world scenarios\, attendees wil l gain perspective on the multifaceted challenges posed by newer technolog ies and potential escalation dynamics involving global nuclear actors and will be encouraged to ‘ask the questions they have always been afraid to ’. \n\nSuch scenarios include:\n\n# A non-weaponised or sub-critical tes t within Russia to intimidate opponents into understanding Russia's resolv e and capabilities. Prior norms have restricted testing since 2000\, apart from North Korea. In case of a full surface test\, Russia could detonate in uninhabited areas within its own vast territory with minimal fallout. W hile clarifying military strength\, demonstrations risk hardening resistan ce without incentivising surrender.\n# Coercive atomic threat to compel Uk raine or its supporters to make concessions. By leveraging the spectre of nuclear warfare\, Russia could expect to achieve its objectives through in timidation and fear. However\, the effectiveness of such a strategy is que stionable\, as it may provoke a strong international response and further galvanise support for Ukraine.\n# Demonstration detonation over/under the Black Sea to signal resolve without targeting Ukraine itself\; possibly am idst negotiations to gain diplomatic leverage\, whilst limiting human casu alties to zero or causing a mild\, non-destructive tsunami. \n# Ukraine co uld decide to launch a pre-emptive strike on Russian nuclear facilities or weapons\, fearing an imminent attack. Such an action would have a high ri sk of failure and might even provoke a nuclear retaliation from Russia. It could also lead to a broader conflict\, as neighbouring countries might f eel compelled to intervene. \n# Limited tactical strike against Ukrainian military or infrastructure to weaken capacity and morale. Russia's 2000+ n on-strategic arsenal could target positions using short-range missiles wit h 0.3 - 5 kiloton yields. Objectives like crippling Kharkiv defences might create no-go zones hindering advances. However\, Ukraine might maintain d rone and cyber offensive capabilities regardless. \n# Electromagnetic Puls e attack designed to disable critical infrastructure in Ukraine and NATO c ountries without radioactive fallout. This aims to hinder the war effort a nd economy without provoking the same conventional military response as a blast. However\, an EMP attack affecting NATO shall still be considered an act of war warranting retaliation.\n# A weapon could be deployed accident ally or without proper authorisation. This could occur due to a technical malfunction\, miscommunication\, human error\, or the actions of rogue ele ments. The consequences of such an event could be catastrophic\, leading t o a rapid escalation of the conflict and potentially triggering a global c risis.\n# Sub-strategic offensive targeting NATO in the European theatre\, so as to fracture allied resolve\, against arms routes in Poland\, Baltic stockpiles\, British naval bases\, American troop concentrations in Germa ny etc. Putin may perceive defeat or deposition as an existential threat\, viewing such an option as self-preservation despite adverse consequences. \n\n\n\n\nDoors open at 6:00 pm. "Lecture at 6:15 pm":https://www.admin. cam.ac.uk/whatson/detail.shtml?uid=71a30ff7-3b47-488b-b744-db1e4ad0af00. Discussion at 7.30 pm. Drinks reception at 8:00 pm\, The Old Library\, Emm anuel College.\n\n\n________________________________________\n\n\n\n*About the speaker:*\n\n_Demetrius A. Floudas is Adj. Professor at the Law Facul ty of Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University in Kaliningrad and Fellow o f the Hellenic Institute of Foreign and International Law. He is an inter national lawyer and regulatory adviser who has lived and worked in Russia and Ukraine for a decade\, advising the Ministry of Economic Development & Trade and the Federal Antimonopoly Service. He served as "Team Leader for the Russian Accession to the World Trade Organisation":https://www.hse.ru /news/27096596.html and was for several years Visiting Professor at the Mo scow State Institute for International Relations (MGIMO). In a "series of lectures at Hughes Hall":https://talks.cam.ac.uk/user/show/23746\, he has for "many years":https://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/23659 predicted that an armed conflict "in Ukraine":https://www.admin.cam.ac.uk/reporter/2013-1 4/weekly/6350/section8.shtml#heading2-15 was becoming increasingly_ "plaus ible":https://www.admin.cam.ac.uk/whatson/detail.shtml?uid=a3b8d67f-118f-4 e2d-ab73-3a20cdb7fe27\n\n_In addition\, D. Floudas has provided commentary on matters of Foreign Affairs & International Relations to a number of in ternational think-tanks\, with his views frequently appearing in the media worldwide ("BBC":https://youtu.be/NpPXnOLz87E TV & "Radio":https://www.fa cebook.com/HughesHallCambridge/posts/112566695522194\, Voice of America\, "Financial Times":https://www.ft.com/content/368cbc3a-1ebf-3580-b1a3-5a290 3a4b9c0/\, Daily Telegraph\, Washington Post\, Politico and others) includ ing in "Ukraine":https://archive.fo/sHJ0D and Russia ("Vedomosti":https:// www.vedomosti.ru/politics/video/2015/03/07/izbavlenie-ot-kommunisticheskoi -tiranii-ili-pochemu-zapad-ne-ponimaet-rossiyu\, "Hromadske TV":https://ww w.youtube.com/watch?v=BQvCRAIFWfY\, "RIA-Novosti":https://ria.ru/interview /20141215/1038291504.html\, Russia Today\,_ "RBK TV":https://www.youtube.c om/watch?v=kEWawU_A1dQ\,_ et "alia)":http://www.aif.ru/politics/world/eksp ert_kembridzha_stabilnost_evrope_mozhet_obespechit_rossiya_vmesto_ssha?fro m=main)._\n\n_Demetrius Floudas is actively engaged in catastrophic risk a nalysis & mitigation policy and is the "Editor in the 'Nuclear War' Sectio n":https://philpeople.org/feed_items/387246242 of the PhilPapers academic repository. He serves as the Senior Adviser to the Cambridge Existential R isk Initiative._\n\n\n\n\n*The lecture will be followed by refreshments*\n \n*This talk is open to all members of the University\, upon prior registr ation:*\n\n\n*PLEASE REGISTER THROUGH "THIS LINK":https://Floudas_Cambridg e_29II24.eventbrite.co.uk*\n\n\n\n_Additional Information may be obtained by writing to:_\n\nThe Director\, CERI\n\nEmail: olivia@meridian-office.or g\n\nTel: +44 (0) 1223 311179\n\n\n\n. LOCATION:Queens Lecture Theatre\, Emmanuel College END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR