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SUMMARY:When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strat
 egies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty - Nathan Doyle (Univ
 ersity of Warwick)
DTSTART:20240306T140000Z
DTEND:20240306T150000Z
UID:TALK212872@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Ciara Dangerfield
DESCRIPTION:During an infectious disease outbreak\, public health policy m
 akers are tasked with strategically implementing control interventions whi
 lst balancing competing objectives. To provide a quantitative framework th
 at can be used to guide these decisions\, it is helpful to devise a clear 
 and specific objective function that can be evaluated to determine the opt
 imal outbreak response. In this study\, we have developed a mathematical m
 odelling framework representing outbreaks of a novel emerging pathogen for
  which non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are imposed or removed base
 d on thresholds for hospital occupancy. These thresholds are set at differ
 ent levels to define four unique control strategies. We illustrate that th
 e optimal intervention strategy is contingent on the choice of objective f
 unction. Specifically\, the optimal strategy depends on the extent to whic
 h policy makers prioritise reducing health costs due to infection over the
  costs associated with control interventions. Motivated by the scenario ea
 rly in the COVID-19 pandemic\, we incorporate the development of a vaccine
  into our modelling framework and demonstrate that a policy maker's belief
  about when a vaccine will become available in future\, and its eventual c
 overage (and/or effectiveness)\, affects the optimal control strategy to a
 dopt early in the outbreak. Furthermore\, we show how uncertainty in these
  quantities can be accounted for when deciding which interventions to intr
 oduce. This research highlights the benefits of policy makers being explic
 it about the precise objectives of introducing interventions.
LOCATION:Zoom
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