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SUMMARY:Stochastic parametrization in numerical weather prediction - Glenn
  Shutts (MetOffice and ECMWF)
DTSTART:20100119T110000Z
DTEND:20100119T120000Z
UID:TALK21437@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Christian Franzke
DESCRIPTION:The rise of ensemble-based  numerical weather prediction has f
 orced\nmodellers to represent the uncertainty of physical and dynamical pr
 ocesses\nin the forecast model's equations by stochastic terms. Failure to
  \nrepresent this 'model error' results in\nensemble systems with too litt
 le spread - even with the most pessimistic \nview of\nanalysis uncertainty
  using inflated initial perturbations. This seminar \nwill describe some o
 f the\ntechniques currently in use at operational weather prediction centr
 es \ntogether with\nmethods for their validation and calibration.
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Room 307
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