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SUMMARY:Enhancing confidence in volcanic ash forecasts - Helen Dacre\, Uni
 versity of Reading
DTSTART:20240531T150000Z
DTEND:20240531T160000Z
UID:TALK216298@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Professor Grae Worster
DESCRIPTION:Forecasting the dispersion of volcanic ash with precision pres
 ents a formidable challenge\, especially in remote volcanic locations wher
 e uncertainties regarding ash emission timing\, quantity\, and vertical di
 stribution are considerable. This seminar introduces methodologies aimed a
 t quantifying these uncertainties more effectively. By utilising ensemble 
 forecasting techniques that address various sources of uncertainty\, forec
 asts often exhibit low confidence levels\, complicating decision-making pr
 ocesses. To enhance forecast reliability\, I will demonstrate a method whi
 ch integrates ensemble volcanic ash predictions with satellite data throug
 h data assimilation methods\, thereby refining emission estimates and impr
 oving forecast confidence. Application of a risk-based approach to these r
 efined simulations enables effective mitigation of high-risk areas\, reduc
 ing disruptions to aviation operations. These findings provide insights to
  enable the transition to probabilistic volcanic ash forecasting.
LOCATION:MR2
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