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SUMMARY:BSU Seminar: &quot\;Making predictions under intervention to avoid
  causal blind spots in treatment decisions&quot\; - Prof Niels Peek\, THIS
  Institute\, University of Cambridge
DTSTART:20240521T130000Z
DTEND:20240521T140000Z
UID:TALK216949@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Alison Quenault
DESCRIPTION:Prediction models are increasingly used to support medical dec
 isions\, but fail to address the special role of treatments\, leading to i
 nappropriate use. In this talk I will discuss the limitations of using sta
 ndard prediction models for treatment decision support\, and describe "cau
 sal blind spots" in three common approaches to handling treatments in pred
 iction modelling\, with illustrations how this can occur in examples of im
 plemented prediction models. I will argue that prediction models should sp
 ecify upfront the treatment decisions they aim to support and target a pre
 diction estimand in line with that goal. This will improve the efficacy of
  prediction models in guiding treatment decisions and prevent potential ne
 gative effects on patient outcomes. Finally I will review causal reasoning
  and inference techniques that can be used to develop and validate models 
 for making predictions under intervention.
LOCATION:MRC Biostatistics Unit\, East Forvie Building\, Forvie Site Robin
 son Way Cambridge CB2 0SR.
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