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SUMMARY: A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future sea
 -level rise - Matt Palmer (Met Office &amp\; University of Bristol)
DTSTART:20240710T130000Z
DTEND:20240710T140000Z
UID:TALK217822@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Birgit Rogalla
DESCRIPTION:For any external attendees\, please email Birgit Rogalla (birg
 al at bas.ac.uk) and Yohei Takano (yokano at bas.ac.uk) to arrange for acc
 ess to BAS. \n\nIn this talk I will present a framework for developing sto
 rylines of UK sea-level rise to aid risk communication and coastal adaptat
 ion planning. The approach builds on UKCP18 and maintains the same physica
 lly consistent methods that preserve component correlations and traceabili
 ty between global mean sea level (GMSL) and local relative sea level (RSL)
 . Five example storylines are presented that represent singular trajectori
 es of future sea-level rise drawn from the underlying large Monte Carlo si
 mulations. The first three storylines span the total range of the IPCC AR6
  likely range GMSL projections across the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 emissions 
 scenarios. The final two storylines are based upon recent high-end storyli
 nes of GMSL presented in AR6 and the recent literature. Our results sugges
 t that even the most optimistic sea-level rise outcomes for the UK will re
 quire adaptation of up to 1 m of sea-level rise for large sections of coas
 tline by 2300. For the storyline most consistent with current internationa
 l greenhouse gas emissions pledges and a moderate sea level rise response\
 , UK capital cities will experience between about 1 and 2 m of sea-level r
 ise by 2300\, with continued rise beyond 2300. The storyline based on the 
 upper end of the AR6 likely range sea-level projections yields much larger
  values for UK capital cities that range between about 3 and 4 m at 2300. 
 The two high-end scenarios\, which are based on a recent study that showed
  accelerated sea-level rise associated with ice sheet instability feedback
 s\, lead to sea-level rise for UK capital cities at 2300 that range betwee
 n about 8 m and 17 m. These magnitudes of rise would pose enormous challen
 ges for UK coastal communities and are likely to be beyond the limits of a
 daptation at some locations.
LOCATION:BAS Seminar Room 1\; https://bas-ac-uk.zoom.us/j/93592321444
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