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SUMMARY:Methods for inferring the end of infectious disease outbreaks - Wi
 lliam Hart (University of Oxford)
DTSTART:20240807T110000Z
DTEND:20240807T111500Z
UID:TALK218233@talks.cam.ac.uk
DESCRIPTION:\nFollowing the apparent final case in an outbreak of a severe
  disease such as Ebola virus disease (EVD)\, the decision to declare the o
 utbreak over must balance societal benefits of relaxing interventions agai
 nst the risk of resurgence. Estimates of the end-of-outbreak probability (
 the probability that no future cases will occur) provide quantitative evid
 ence that can inform the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration. Here\, 
 we present recently developed methods for estimating the end-of-outbreak p
 robability\, considering data from historical EVD outbreaks in the Democra
 tic Republic of the Congo.\n
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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