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SUMMARY:Antarctic Atmospheric Rivers in Present and Future Climates - Mich
 elle Maclennan (University of Colorado Boulder)
DTSTART:20240920T130000Z
DTEND:20240920T140000Z
UID:TALK218992@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Thomas Caton Harrison
DESCRIPTION:Despite their relative rarity\, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are k
 ey contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However\, the f
 uture role of ARs in the Antarctic climate system\, and in particular thei
 r ability to help offset future Antarctic mass loss by producing intense p
 recipitation\, is a major area of uncertainty. High-resolution climate sim
 ulations from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ens
 emble suggest that Antarctic ARs are highly sensitive to future increases 
 in atmospheric moisture\, which leads to a doubling of AR frequencies and 
 precipitation impacts from 2066-2100 (under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathw
 ay 3-7.0) when using present-day thresholds for AR detection. However\, fu
 ture surface impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold f
 or ARs: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smalle
 r\, regional changes in AR frequency and precipitation\, primarily resulti
 ng from an eastward shift of the polar jet. Ultimately\, this work shows t
 hat how we detect Antarctic ARs and attribute precipitation in the present
  day\, and how we adapt these methodologies to future climate states\, wil
 l determine how we describe the importance of ARs in the Antarctic climate
  system. Furthermore\, the results underline the importance of using model
  large ensembles to quantify Antarctic AR responses to variability in proj
 ected moisture\, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble 
 members. 
LOCATION:BAS Cambridge Meeting Room 154 and Zoom
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