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SUMMARY:Quantifying model uncertainty in the dynamical and radiative adjus
 tments to stratospheric heating - Dr Colleen Golja\, Imperial
DTSTART:20241104T130000Z
DTEND:20241104T140000Z
UID:TALK222583@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Kasia Warburton
DESCRIPTION:The stratospheric circulation is driven by complex wave-mean f
 low interactions\, and models and even reanalysis products have significan
 t differences in their representation of the stratospheric circulation. Ne
 vertheless\, these models have been used to predict climate change due to 
 Solar Radiation Management (SRM) strategies. The introduction of aerosol o
 r aerosol precursors to create an artificial reflective stratospheric aero
 sol layer\, known as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI)\, leads to two 
 major radiative effects: (1) a reduction in short wave forcing\, and (2) a
 n increase in lower stratospheric heating. \n\nTo date\, very little work 
 has been done to specifically examine the effects and uncertainties relate
 d to this lower stratospheric heating. To fill this gap\, we analyze the o
 utputs of a model intercomparison project in which a persistent\, idealize
 d heating rate is applied in the equatorial lower stratosphere of five GCM
 s. Despite an identical forcing\, each model exhibits unique stratospheric
  and surface adjustments. We quantify inter-model differences in the strat
 ospheric dynamical and radiative response to heating\, providing a basis f
 or understanding discrepancies in the corresponding tropospheric responses
 . We use offline radiative transfer calculations to probe the role of the 
 baseline thermal state in a model’s sensitivity to the imposed heating t
 endency\, providing a correction to the assumption of fixed dynamical heat
 ing. We couple this with an assessment of changes to the stratospheric ove
 rturning circulation and stratospheric water vapor to unpack key drivers o
 f the modeled uncertainty in the response to stratospheric heating.
LOCATION:MR3\, CMS
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