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SUMMARY:Developing Causal Network Models to Untangle the Mechanisms Behind
  Past Large-Scale Climate Reorganizations - Peisong Zheng (University of C
 ambridge)
DTSTART:20241108T153000Z
DTEND:20241108T170000Z
UID:TALK223084@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Martina Scauda
DESCRIPTION:Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events are large\, abrupt millennial-s
 cale climate reorganizations that occurred during the ice ages. Each event
  is characterized by an abrupt warming of 5 to 16.5°C during transitions 
 from stadial (cold) to interstadial (warm) periods\, with recurrence times
  varying from approximately 1 to nearly 9 thousand years. These events hav
 e long been associated with changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridi
 onal Overturning Circulation\, yet the causes of these changes are still u
 nder debate. A primary obstacle hindering the understanding of their mecha
 nisms is the unclear relationship between different climate variables. In 
 this research\, I aim to employ two causal methods: Granger Causality and 
 PCMCI\, to reconstruct the causal relationships among DO event climate var
 iables from climate model outputs. Before that\, simple systems mimicking 
 DO event dynamics have been built to study the applicability of these caus
 al methods on the highly non-linear\, non-stationary DO event data. My ana
 lyses showed that each causal method has unique advantages and limitations
  and requires careful consideration when utilising these methods to study 
 DO event causalities.
LOCATION:MR12\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, Wilberforce Road\, Camb
 ridge
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