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SUMMARY:Scenarios for strategic planning in the built environment - Jeff V
 ickers
DTSTART:20100204T120000Z
DTEND:20100204T140000Z
UID:TALK22628@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Scott Kelly
DESCRIPTION:*Abstract*\n\nBuildings\, highways and airports\, like much of
  the built environment\, have long design lives that necessitate long-term
  planning. This seminar will explore how decision-makers can use scenarios
  to help them take a long-term view in an increasingly uncertain world. Th
 e first two speakers will focus on the cross-cutting issues of energy and 
 energy efficiency\, while the second two speakers will focus on the specif
 ic issues of aviation infrastructure and construction materials.\n \n*Spea
 kers*\n\nDr Alexander Van de Putte\, Senior Director and Head of Scenario 
 Processes and Applications\, PFC Energy International\; Adjunct Professor 
 of Energy Economics\, Energy Delta Institute\; Adjunct Professor of Strate
 gic Foresight\, IE Business School\; Associate\, US National Intelligence 
 Council\; Brains Trust\, Evian Group at IMD.\n \n_Dr Theo Hacking\, Senior
  Research Associate\, Cambridge Centre for Energy Studies_\n \n_Marcus Mor
 rell\, Senior Analyst\, Arup Foresight Innovation + Incubation_\n \n_Jeff 
 Vickers\, PhD student\, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering\
 , University of Auckland\, New Zealand_\n \n*Speakers' abstracts*\n \n_*Dr
  Alexander Van de Putte\, "Implications of Shell's recent energy scenarios
  for the built environment"_*\n \nRoyal Dutch / Shell Group has a long his
 tory of scenario planning. Using scenarios\, Shell famously anticipated th
 e 1973 oil crisis and the fall of communism in Russia. By understanding ea
 rly indicators of change\, Shell was able to take appropriate action quick
 ly.\n \nIn 2008\, Shell published two energy scenarios looking forward to 
 2050: Blueprints and Scramble. Both scenarios are driven by three "hard tr
 uths": energy use in developing nations is increasing dramatically\, suppl
 y will struggle to meet demand\, and environmental stresses from energy us
 e will increase. Will nations scramble to meet their own energy demands or
  will they cooperate and draft blueprints?\n \nAs one of the experts who h
 elped to create these scenarios\, Alexander will introduce each of them be
 fore working through their implications for the built environment.\n \n*_D
 r Theo Hacking\, "Scenarios for the future of energy management in buildin
 gs and property developments"_*\n \nExisting buildings\, including the app
 liances within them\, account for over 40% of the world’s total primary 
 energy consumption and approximately 25% of carbon emissions. In more deve
 loped countries\, such as the UK\, the contribution is closer to 50%. With
  rising energy costs and ambitious carbon reduction targets\, energy effic
 iency will be a critical issue for the future of the built environment.\n 
 \nCambridge Centre for Energy Studies (CCES) at the Judge Business School 
 and property group Grosvenor are coordinating a project that aims to explo
 re the most appropriate responses to the future challenges of energy manag
 ement in buildings and property developments\, and the interventions (‘p
 olicies’) needed to facilitate their implementation. Theo will introduce
  the scenario-building technique being applied\, the four scenarios that h
 ave already been developed – Steady Progress\, Transformational Change\,
  Growing Divide and Comfort without Concern – and future work.\n \n*_Mar
 cus Morrell\, "Aviation 2040: Future scenarios for airport infrastructure"
 _*\n \nIn 2009\, Arup’s Foresight group developed four scenarios for the
  Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE)\, focussing on the future of UK avia
 tion and airport infrastructure to 2040. The ICE commissioned the project 
 in the hope that the scenarios will stimulate long-term\, strategic thinki
 ng in both the public and private sectors. Marcus will talk about the proc
 ess that Arup designed to create the scenario set in collaboration with th
 e ICE. He will also give an overview of the scenarios themselves and some 
 of the conclusions that were drawn.\n \n*_Jeff Vickers\, "Possible future 
 scenarios for construction aggregate and implications for earthmoving equi
 pment"_*\n \nFuture scenarios are commonly presented as competing stories 
 of wildly different future states. To illustrate each scenario world and h
 ow it came about\, devices such as fictional news clippings\, thought-prov
 oking images and excerpts from fact books are used. As a result\, the end 
 states are often given much more weight than the process of reaching them.
 \n \nAn alternative approach\, Scenario Network Mapping\, presents scenari
 os as a roadmap of possible cause-and-effect links. This makes the interna
 l logic of the scenarios transparent\, meaning they are easier to modify a
 s new possibilities emerge. It also highlights the points at which scenari
 os diverge and converge\, better enabling firms to build flexibility and r
 obustness into their future products and services.\n \nUsing the construct
 ion aggregates industry as an example\, Jeff will discuss how Scenario Net
 work Mapping can be applied to a global market and present initial finding
 s on how the scenarios can be linked to product and technology roadmaps\, 
 in this case for earthmoving equipment.\n
LOCATION:CRASSH Seminar Room 17 Mill Lane
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