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SUMMARY:Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: F
 oundations\, Green's Functions\, and Nonlinear Fingerprints - Valerio Luca
 rini (University of Leicester)
DTSTART:20250123T150000Z
DTEND:20250123T160000Z
UID:TALK227164@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Matthew Colbrook
DESCRIPTION:Detection and attribution (D&A) studies are cornerstones of cl
 imate science\, providing crucial evidence for policy decisions. Their goa
 l is to link observed climate change patterns to anthropogenic and natural
  drivers via the optimal fingerprinting method (OFM). We show that respons
 e theory for nonequilibrium systems offers the physical and dynamical basi
 s for OFM\, including the concept of causality used for attribution. Our f
 ramework clarifies the method's assumptions\, advantages\, and potential w
 eaknesses. We use our theory to perform D&A for prototypical climate chang
 e experiments performed on an energy balance model and on a low-resolution
  coupled climate model. We also explain the underpinnings of degenerate fi
 ngerprinting\, which offers early warning indicators for tipping points. F
 inally\, we extend the OFM to the nonlinear response regime. Our analysis 
 shows that OFM has broad applicability across diverse stochastic systems i
 nfluenced by time-dependent forcings\, with potential relevance to ecosyst
 ems\, quantitative social sciences\, and finance\, among others.\n\nKey Re
 ferences\nV. Lucarini and M. D. Chekroun\, Detecting and Attributing Chang
 e in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations\, Green's Functions\, and No
 nlinear Fingerprints\, Phys. Rev. Lett. 133\, 244201 (2024) https://doi.or
 g/10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.244201\nV. Lucarini and M. D. Chekroun\, Theor
 etical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann’s prog
 ramme and beyond\, Nat. Rev. Phys. 5\, 744 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1038/
 s42254-023-00650-8\n
LOCATION:Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, MR14
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