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SUMMARY:Antarctic Atmospheric Rivers in the Present and Future Climates - 
 Dr. Michelle Maclennan\, British Antarctic Survey
DTSTART:20250227T160000Z
DTEND:20250227T170000Z
UID:TALK227944@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:86998
DESCRIPTION:Despite occurring only ~1% of the time\, Antarctic atmospheric
  rivers (ARs) contribute 10% of the annual precipitation and are major dri
 vers for heatwaves\, foehn events\, and surface melting on ice shelves. Wh
 ile snowfall is currently the dominant impact of ARs on Antarctica\, the r
 elative contribution of ARs to snowfall\, rainfall\, and surface melt may 
 change in a warming climate\, along with the frequency and intensity of AR
  events themselves. Here\, we use a suite of global climate models\, inclu
 ding the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and
  the US Department of Energy’s Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3
 SMv2)\, to detect ARs during the current period (1980–2014) and future c
 limate (2015–2100) under the SSP370 radiative forcing scenario. We use a
 n AR detection threshold for the current period based on the 98th percenti
 le of the meridional component of integrated vapor transport (vIVT). To ac
 count for projected future increases in atmospheric moisture content (Clau
 sius-Clapeyron effect) and its impacts on vIVT\, we scale our AR detection
  threshold for the future period by the relative change in integrated wate
 r vapor compared to the present-day climatology. We then describe how the 
 frequency and variability of Antarctic ARs changes by the end of the 21st 
 century by region\, with links to changes in the large-scale atmospheric c
 irculation accompanying ARs. Finally\, we quantify AR-attributed precipita
 tion\, precipitation variability\, and trends in the future climate\, ulti
 mately providing an early assessment of future AR-driven changes to Antarc
 tic surface mass balance.
LOCATION:Scott Polar Research Institute\, main lecture theatre
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