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SUMMARY:Tipping points of the Ross and Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves: how wor
 ried should we be? - Kaitlin Naughten\, British Antarctic Survey
DTSTART:20250319T140000Z
DTEND:20250319T150000Z
UID:TALK228577@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Birgit Rogalla
DESCRIPTION:Ocean models consistently project that with sufficient climate
  change forcing\, the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf cavities could abr
 uptly transition from a cold state to a warm state. Crossing these tipping
  points would have profound consequences for basal melt rates\, buttressin
 g of ice streams\, and ultimately sea level rise. Here we analyse over 14\
 ,000 years of “overshoot” simulations with the UK Earth System Model\,
  which includes a fully coupled Antarctic Ice Sheet. As the climate warms\
 , stabilises at different temperatures\, and cools again\, we simulate man
 y examples of the cavities tipping and recovering. We find that global war
 ming thresholds of around 3.5°C and 5°C tip the Ross and Filchner-Ronne 
 respectively. We also find evidence of hysteresis: the climate must cool b
 ack down beyond the tipping thresholds in order for each cavity to return 
 to its original cold state. Even if the oceanography recovers\, the ice sh
 eet does not: sea level contribution from each catchment takes centuries e
 ven to stabilise\, and the ice does not begin to regrow on this timescale.
  Therefore\, if the Ross or Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves cross tipping point
 s\, the resulting sea level rise will be effectively irreversible.
LOCATION:BAS Seminar Room 2
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