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SUMMARY:SKILL VERSUS LUCK: WHEN ARE PEOPLE MORE LIKELY TO MISTAKE GOOD LUC
 K - Chengwei Liu\, the Judge Business School
DTSTART:20100205T123000Z
DTEND:20100205T140000Z
UID:TALK23150@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Donna Harris
DESCRIPTION:Learning from high levels of performances entails important as
 pects of human development. This paper investigates how people's imagining
  of alternatives\nto reality influences their causal evaluations of high p
 erformances. High performance is more likely to interfere with causal judg
 ment due to the\nmental simulation heuristic when a high performance (1) d
 oes not have cues disconfirming prior expectation\;  (2) could have been a
  failure but does not entail a propensity toward alternative outcomes\; or
  (3) is framed as a result of human intervention. Three types of high perf
 ormance with characteristics that conform to these three conditions are th
 en introduced.\nPeople are more likely to mistake good luck for superior s
 kill when evaluating high performance in these three ways. This paper conc
 ludes by\ndiscussing the desirable and undesirable behavioral consequences
  from such misjudgments and by suggesting some solutions to the problems w
 hich may\nensue.
LOCATION:The Meade Room (1st floor of the Marshall Library)
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