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SUMMARY:What Promotes Human Migration? Spatial models to reconstruct the r
 egional geographic variations in the sub-Saharan EIA -  Alexes Mes (Univer
 sity of Cambridge)
DTSTART:20250502T121500Z
DTEND:20250502T130000Z
UID:TALK231670@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Joe Lewis
DESCRIPTION:All large-scale human dispersals are complex: the units of mig
 ration (individuals\, families\, communities)\, the localised tempo and di
 rection of dispersal\, as well as the underlying drivers shifted frequentl
 y.\n\nFrom around 4\,000 BP\, large-scale southern migrations expanded thr
 oughout sub-Saharan Africa resulting in major subsistence and cultural cha
 nges. The dispersal is associated with an 'EIA cultural package' consistin
 g -- wholly\, or in part\, at various times -- of a more sedentary lifesty
 le\, thick-walled pottery\, iron metallurgy\, cattle-keeping and crop cult
 ivation. Some past archaeological studies have implicitly understood EIA e
 xpansion in sub-Saharan Africa as an expansion of a single\, continuous ev
 ent. However\, cultural traits and subsistence strategies evolved through 
 multiple interactions and shifting ecological environments. Whether the po
 pulation spread continuously\, in waves\, or following a process of jumps 
 remains an underlying question.\n\nThis paper explores the 'EIA cultural p
 ackage' as a series of regional and complex movements\, focusing on variat
 ions in the tempo of dispersal and arrival times of these traits within sm
 aller geographic areas. The arrival times of these traits in geographic su
 b-regions are examined using a Bayesian ICAR model\, where a hierarchical 
 structure is introduced to account for the bias introduced by sample inter
 dependence. The use of an ICAR structure allows the model to capture the u
 nderlying spatial autocorrelation in the data and provide broad arrival es
 timates in regions where we have no prior information. This framework is t
 hen built on by using Bayesian Wombling methods to consider if and how sui
 tability to pastoralism and agriculture can explain the observed boundary 
 differences in the dispersal process.\n\nThe results presented build a mor
 e detailed description of the localised dynamics of EIA communities in sub
 -Saharan Africa. Throughout\, biases which influence the data -- such as u
 neven spatial and temporal sampling density -- are acknowledged and measur
 ement uncertainty (calibration curve error and the sample's C14 age error)
  is accounted for.\n\nPlease join us in-person in the McDonald Institute s
 eminar room or join online.\n\nhttps://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/1
 9%3ameeting_ZDc2MDk1ZGQtNmNkZC00M2U2LTliYjMtN2EyZWE0MDI5ZTAz%40thread.v2/0
 ?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2249a50445-bdfa-4b79-ade3-547b4f3986e9%22%2c%22Oi
 d%22%3a%227c42dde3-f200-49ed-9a81-5aa7e67f945e%22%7d
LOCATION:Seminar Room\, McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research\, D
 owning Site
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