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SUMMARY:Quantifying uncertainties for multi-model\, multi-input ensembles 
 of ice sheet and glacier change - Tamsin Edwards (King's College London)
DTSTART:20250731T130000Z
DTEND:20250731T140000Z
UID:TALK234790@talks.cam.ac.uk
DESCRIPTION:\nSea level projections to 2100 in the Intergovernmental Panel
  on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report used Gaussian Process em
 ulation of land ice changes\, based on multi-model ensembles of ice sheet 
 and glacier models (100s of simulations) that varied a small number of com
 mon parameters across models (Edwards et al.\, 2021).&nbsp\;\n&nbsp\;\nThe
  EU Horizon 2020 project PROTECT is aiming to extend and improve these pro
 jections with larger\, more comprehensive datasets and methodological deve
 lopments. We have generated large multi-model ensembles (1000s of simulati
 ons)\, that systematically explore tens of model uncertainties (parameters
 \, structure\, initial and boundary conditions)\, extending from the recen
 t past to 2300. We use Gaussian Process emulation of these multi-model ens
 embles and calibrate the projections with observations. The aim is to prod
 uce more comprehensive and robust estimates of the land ice contribution t
 o long-term sea level rise for the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report.\n
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Newton Institute
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