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SUMMARY:Predicting wind extremes in a warming climate: from general circul
 ation to storm-resolving models via improved turbulence representation - E
 manuele Silvio Gentile\, University of Reading
DTSTART:20251013T120000Z
DTEND:20251013T130000Z
UID:TALK236758@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Bethan Wynne-Cattanach
DESCRIPTION:A wave of unprecedented extreme weather events\, breaking reco
 rds worldwide\, has raised urgent questions about the ability of current w
 eather and climate models to anticipate the emerging impacts of climate ch
 ange on human life and infrastructure. Among these\, extreme wind speeds a
 nd gusts\, often associated with midlatitude cyclones and low-level jets\,
  pose a growing threat to critical sectors of society. In this talk\, I wi
 ll first present projections of near-surface extreme winds over the midlat
 itudes of both hemispheres under an idealized warming scenario\, based on 
 CMIP-class models. I will then illustrate how global kilometer-scale simul
 ations may provide new insight into how the structure and intensity of Nor
 th Atlantic midlatitude cyclones respond to climate warming. Finally\, I w
 ill discuss results from a set of experiments with the GFDL-AM4 model that
  incorporate improved turbulence representation via the CLUBB scheme. Thes
 e highlight the role of prognosed momentum fluxes in better capturing low-
 level jet dynamics and improving the simulation of the diurnal precipitati
 on cycle. Together\, these studies demonstrate the importance of refined p
 hysics and high-resolution modeling for advancing our understanding and pr
 ediction of wind extremes in a warming climate.
LOCATION:MR3\, CMS
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