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SUMMARY:FEVER: Forecasting Eruptions at Volcanoes after Extended Repose - 
 Dr Eric Newland\, UCL
DTSTART:20260205T113000Z
DTEND:20260205T123000Z
UID:TALK240748@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Catherine Pearson
DESCRIPTION:Volcanic eruptions threaten more than one in ten people worldw
 ide\, with the greatest risk at volcanoes reawakening after long quiescenc
 e. In these settings\, eruptions are often explosive and nearby communitie
 s may be unprepared. Unrest commonly reflects magma accumulating in shallo
 w storage\, deforming the surrounding crust until it fails\; a magma-fille
 d fracture can then propagate to the surface and trigger eruption. Forecas
 ting such events therefore depends on tracking deformation and estimating 
 when the crust will rupture. Here we introduce a framework to track defor
 mation by inferring the temporal evolution of elastic strain energy and me
 an stress during unrest\, combining geodetic deformation with seismicity. 
 Applied to Campi Flegrei (2011–2025) and the 2018 Sierra Negra eruption\
 , the inferred mean stress follows a characteristic sequence: an initial l
 inear increase consistent with predominantly elastic deformation\, followe
 d by a transition to inelastic behaviour as energy loss to fracturing rise
 s and ultimately exceeds the elastic energy input. Thereafter\, the mean s
 tress declines\, indicating progressive weakening driven by seismicity-ind
 uced damage. This pattern mirrors laboratory observations of bulk failure 
 in extension and is consistent with the development of new pathways for ma
 gma and fluids. Our approach helps distinguish deformation regimes at reaw
 akening volcanoes and supports hazard assessment during prolonged unrest.
LOCATION:Open Plan Area\, Institute for Energy and Environmental Flows\, M
 adingley Rise CB3 0EZ
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