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SUMMARY:The Mathematics of Epidemics: History Of and Recent Developments i
 n Epidemic Outbreak Analysis - Professor Sir Roy Anderson\, FRS\, FMedSci 
 \,  Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology\, Imperial College London
DTSTART:20070517T110000Z
DTEND:20070517T120000Z
UID:TALK24123@talks.cam.ac.uk
DESCRIPTION:Human fascination with epidemics of infectious diseases and th
 e associated patterns of mortality has a long history. Examples include th
 e epidemics discussed by the Chinese scholar\, Ssu Kwong\, who lived durin
 g the Sing Dynasty (AD 960-1279)\, the epidemics of the Greek scholar Hipp
 ocrates (458-377 BC)\, the rudimentary statistics of John Grant (1620-74) 
 and William Petty (1623-87)\, who studied the London Bills of Mortality in
  the seventeenth century\, and the detailed description of epidemics by Ri
 chard Mead ('Discourse on Plagues' 1673-1754) who so nearly interested Isa
 ac Newton in the geometry of epidemic curves.\n\nThe foundations of today'
 s approaches to the mathematical description of infectious disease transmi
 ssion and control go back to the 1700s with Daniel Bernoulli's work in 176
 0 on a simple mathematical model to evaluate the effectiveness of variolat
 ion to protect against smallpox. Daniel Bernoulli was one of a number of e
 arly mathematicians who turned their skills to probability problems raised
  by gamblers - often at the card tables in Monte Carlo.\n\nThe lecture wil
 l chart some of this history\, starting with the work of Ronald Ross the N
 obel Laureate who discovered the role of mosquitoes in the transmission of
  malaria\, and moving through to the sophisticated models in use today for
  planning for an influenza pandemic. The application of mathematical appro
 aches to further understanding of disease transmission and control will be
  illustrated by reference to recent epidemics such as HIV and AIDS\, Foot 
 and Mouth disease\, SARS and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE). 
LOCATION:Room 3\, Mill Lane Lecture Rooms\, 8 Mill Lane\, Cambridge.
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