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SUMMARY:The Carbon at Risk Measure Can Unlock Financial Markets for Large-
 Scale Carbon Removal - Tom Bearpark\, Princeton University
DTSTART:20260306T130000Z
DTEND:20260306T140000Z
UID:TALK241945@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:114742
DESCRIPTION:\n*Abstract*\n\nMeeting net-zero targets requires a rapid and 
 large-scale increase in investment in carbon dioxide removal\, and ensurin
 g that investment is allocated efficiently across technologies with fundam
 entally different risk profiles. Carbon removal markets currently lack a s
 tandardised\, quantitative measure of permanence risk\, leaving buyers and
  policymakers reliant on coarse qualitative classifications that inhibit i
 nformed comparison and portfolio construction. Inspired by Value at Risk i
 n financial markets\, we propose Carbon at Risk (CaR): the additional remo
 val that must be purchased to guarantee\, at a given confidence level and 
 time horizon\, that a target quantity of carbon remains durably stored. We
  estimate CaR in two empirical applications with very different risk profi
 les: forest carbon\, where Monte Carlo simulations calibrated to satellite
 -derived fire data yield a 95% CaR at 200 years of up to 80%\, and geologi
 cal storage (DACCS)\, where the 95% CaR ranges from 0.15% to 17% depending
  on regulatory regime. We then show how combining technologies in a portfo
 lio creates a trade-off between cost and risk: the minimum cost of meeting
  a durability target depends on within-technology correlation and the rela
 tive price of safer alternatives. CaR provides a practical basis for calib
 rating buffer pools\, comparing projects on a common scale\, and designing
  cost-effective removal portfolios.\n\n*Bio*\n\nTom Bearpark is an environ
 mental economist\, whose research focuses on the impacts of climate change
 . He completed his PhD at Princeton University in December 2025. He is now
  a Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the University of Exeter\, and a Visit
 ing Fellow at the LSE Grantham Institute.\n\n
LOCATION:Room GS15 at the William Gates Building and on Zoom: https://cl-c
 am-ac-uk.zoom.us/j/4361570789?pwd=Nkl2T3ZLaTZwRm05bzRTOUUxY3Q4QT09&amp\;fr
 om=addon 
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