BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:'Muddling through or tunnelling through?’ UK monetary and fiscal
  exceptionalism and the Great Inflation - Ryland Thomas (Bank of England)
DTSTART:20260202T170000Z
DTEND:20260202T183000Z
UID:TALK242656@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Duncan Needham
DESCRIPTION:Discussion of the causes of the Great Inflation in the UK duri
 ng the 1970s has centred around the relative importance of ‘bad luck’ 
 – the occurrence of unusually large commodity price and supply-side shoc
 ks – and ‘bad policy’ reflecting failures in both monetary and price
 s and incomes policies. By reconsidering the historical and empirical reco
 rd of inflation from 1950s to the early 1990s we show that the persistence
  of the Great Inflation in the UK cannot fully be explained by these facto
 rs\, although these can account for some of the major fluctuations. Instea
 d\, underlying inflation and inflation expectations appear to be the resul
 t of a sequence of regime shifts. We argue those regime shifts are as much
  related to fundamental changes in fiscal policy as they are to monetary p
 olicy and union reforms. Our empirical evidence suggests that fiscal polic
 y was at the heart of many of the problems in the UK during the Great Infl
 ation. In contrast to most of British history\, it was not used to stabili
 se the public finances. Instead\, it was used to keep unemployment down an
 d growth up\, to subsidise losers from terms of trade shocks and to secure
  deals with the unions.
LOCATION:John Bradfield Room\, Darwin College and Zoom
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR