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SUMMARY:Model uncertainty in weather and climate models: Stochastic and mu
 lti-physics representations - Berner\, J (National Center for Atmospheric 
 Research)
DTSTART:20100827T130000Z
DTEND:20100827T140000Z
UID:TALK25904@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:A multi-physics and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter sc
 heme are employed to represent model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble p
 rediction system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Both mo
 del-error schemes lead to significant improvements over the control ensemb
 le system that is simply a downscaled global ensemble forecast with the sa
 me physics for each ensemble member. The improvements are evident in verif
 ication against both observations and analyses\, but different in some det
 ails. Overall the stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme outperforms
  the multi-physics scheme\, except near the surface. Best results are obta
 ined when both schemes are used simultaneously\, indicating that the model
  error can best be captured by a combination of multiple schemes. 
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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