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SUMMARY:Modelling ecological systems under environmental change. - Matthew
  Evans\, University of Exeter
DTSTART:20101109T110000Z
DTEND:20101109T120000Z
UID:TALK27779@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Microsoft Research Cambridge Talks Admins
DESCRIPTION:The world’s environment is changing\, but we have a relative
 ly poor understanding of the scale and nature of the biological effects of
  this change. There is a societal imperative to improve our ability to pre
 dict the impact of environmental change on the biological world. We need t
 he ability to forecast the likely state of ecological systems in future\, 
 novel conditions. All modelling involves making philosophical decisions ab
 out what we are doing and why. Currently\, prediction in ecology is typica
 lly made using  general\, precise models that are good at describing the p
 ast but poor at predicting the future behaviour of a system in new conditi
 ons. We need the ability to produce robust\, accurate predictions of speci
 fic systems in the novel environments of the future. The basis for the app
 roach one might need to achieve these ends is discussed. A process-based\,
  systems approach would seem to provide the ability to produce robust ecol
 ogical forecasts and such approaches have been used successfully in the re
 lated fields of climatology and molecular biology. Adopting this approach 
 in ecology would require a culture change but could pave the way to ecolog
 y becoming truly predictive. A systems approach to ecological prediction w
 ould be computationally difficult\, but the imperative is great enough to 
 argue for the effort equivalent to that which went into the production of 
 climate models.
LOCATION:Small lecture theatre\, Microsoft Research Ltd\, 7 J J Thomson Av
 enue (Off Madingley Road)\, Cambridge
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