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SUMMARY:Climate modelling at Quaternary time scales - Crucifix\, M (Univer
 site Catholique de Louvain)
DTSTART:20101207T093000Z
DTEND:20101207T103000Z
UID:TALK28297@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:Climate changes at time scales of several (tens) of thousands 
 years like glacial interglacial cycles may be viewed as an 'emergent featu
 re' of the climate system. They can be understood at different levels : fr
 om a general circulations prospective (how changes in astronomical element
 s affect the hydrological\, nutrient and carbon cycles)\; from a dynamical
  system prospective (locate and characterize bifuraction points\, detect s
 ynchronisation phenemena\, identify couplings between different time scale
 s... )\; or from a statistical prospective (estimate the probability of ev
 ents and assess the predictability of the climate system at these time sca
 les). The ambition of a general theory Pleistocene climate is to merge the
 se approaches.\n\nThe recent mathematical developments reviewed during the
  present Newton Institute constitute promising avenues to this end. For ex
 ample\, statistical emulators allow to explore in depth the input and para
 meter spaces of general circulation simulators\, including their sensitivi
 ty to the astronomical forcing. Monte-Carlo statistical methods allow to c
 alibrate low-order stochastic dynamical systems\, and guide the process of
  criticism and selection of models. The purpose of this talk is to summari
 se advances gained during the Newton Institute along these lines. 
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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