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SUMMARY:Synthesising Model Projections of Future Climate Change - Collins\
 , M (Exeter)
DTSTART:20101206T153000Z
DTEND:20101206T163000Z
UID:TALK28298@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:It has never been a more exciting time to be a climate modeler
 . International coordination of model experiments by the Coupled Model Int
 ercomparison Project (CMIP5) will see the estimated production of over 2 p
 etabytes of model output from 20 modeling centers and 40 different climate
  models (downloading the data on a home broadband would take 25 years). Th
 ere will be new model functionality in terms of the processes represented 
 in the models including chemistry and biology\, new forcing scenarios incl
 uding palaeoclimate and idealized cases and new experiments initialized wi
 th observations to look at near-term climate variability and change. Moreo
 ver there is an unprecedented interest in\, and scrutiny of\, climate mode
 l projections from fellow scientists\, from the public and from government
 s.\n\nHow on earth are we to make sense of this information overload? This
  talk will review some of the approaches that we expect will be used to an
 alyses the new CMIP5 multi-model database. Some approaches rely on physica
 l understanding of the climate system to make sense of the data. Some use 
 simple statistical approaches to rationalize the output. In some specific 
 cases\, more complex statistical approaches may be applied carefully. Fina
 lly\, all the approaches will have to be synthesized to provide a summary 
 of the state of climate modeling science. This challenge will be discussed
 . 
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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