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SUMMARY:New Newtonian Alchemy: Turning Noise into Signal - Cox\, P (Exeter
 )
DTSTART:20101208T093000Z
DTEND:20101208T103000Z
UID:TALK28313@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:This talk will summarise progress on the application of three 
 strands of the Newton Institute Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to
  Climate Modelling and Prediction Programme\, which are all connected thro
 ugh the general notion of turning noise into signal: \n<p></p>\n(a) Maximu
 m Entropy Production (MEP) principles of the climate system application to
  surface-to-atmosphere turbulent fluxes. (b) Time-series techniques to giv
 e forewarning of climate tipping points application to possible climate-dr
 iven Amazon forest dieback. (c) Fluctuation theories to determine climate 
 system sensitivities – using interannual variability of CO2 as a constrai
 nt on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. \n<p></p>
 \nIn the case of (b) and (c) short-timescale variability is used to determ
 ine the vulnerability of the system to an abrupt change and a warming-indu
 ced release of land carbon\, respectively. In (a)\, the application of MEP
  to vertical turbulent fluxes puts these noisy fluxes at centre-stage in t
 he climate system\, rather than being treated as a residual term in the su
 rface energy balance. \n<p></p>\nThe Newton Institute programme has stimul
 ated progress in all three of these areas. This talk will summarize the cu
 rrent state-of-play and suggest priorities for follow-on research.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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