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SUMMARY:Going Beyond Dangerous: brutal numbers and tenuous hope: Exploring
  the void between reality and rhetoric on climate change mitigation - Prof
 essor Kevin Anderson\, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (Manches
 ter)
DTSTART:20110125T140000Z
DTEND:20110125T150000Z
UID:TALK29381@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:paul haynes
DESCRIPTION:The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community
 ’s commitment to “hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degr
 ees Celsius”. Similarly\, the EU maintains it ‘must ensure global aver
 age temperature increases do not exceed 2°C’ and the UK’s 2009 Low Ca
 rbon Transition Plan\, states that “to avoid the most dangerous impacts 
 of climate change\, average global temperatures must rise no more than 2°
 C”. Despite such unequivocal statements the accompanying policies or abs
 ence of policies demonstrate a pivotal disjuncture between high-level aspi
 rations with regards to 2°C and the policy reality. In part this reflects
  the continued dominance of ‘end point’ targets rather than scientific
 ally-credible emission budgets and pathways\, but even within the UK\, whe
 re the policy-community and legislation aligns more closely with the scien
 ce of climate change\, the disjuncture nevertheless remains. \nIn recent y
 ears increasing numbers of national and global emissions scenarios have be
 en developed\, each with differing carbon budgets and hence with different
  temperature impacts. Coordinating national with global analyses is eviden
 tly a prerequisite of understanding the scale and rate of mitigation and a
 daptation accompanying differing levels of climate change. However\, as it
  stands\, such coordination is rare with little more than perfunctory corr
 elation between national emission pathways and the quantitative scale of t
 he challenge at a global level. By disaggregating selected global emission
  pathways into Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations\, this presentation outline
 s a much improved understanding of the extent of the mitigation challenge 
 specifically and the adaptation challenge more generally.\nThe analysis of
 fers a stark and unremitting assessment of climate change. There is now li
 ttle to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or
  below 2°C\, despite both repeated high-level statements to the contrary 
 and the conclusions of more orthodox analysis (Committee on Climate Change
 \, Stern\, ADAM\, AVOID\, etc). Moreover\, the impacts associated with 2°
 C have been revised upwards\, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropria
 tely represents the threshold between ‘dangerous and extremely dangerous
  climate change’. Consequently and with tentative signs of global emissi
 ons returning to their earlier levels of growth\, 2010 represents a politi
 cal tipping point. The science of climate change allied with emission scen
 arios for Annex1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a very different mitigat
 ion and adaption challenge from that we are collectively prepared to count
 enance. The implications of this are profound for policy. In terms of adap
 tation\, the scale of change and timeframe within which such changes need 
 to be implemented are much more demanding than previously thought. Current
  commitments to reduce emissions suggest a global temperature rise of 4°C
  by 2060-70 is increasingly likely\; with the rise being greater at more n
 ortherly and southerly latitudes\, and greater still for the land areas on
 ce the relative thermal inertia of the oceans is accounted for. Turning to
  mitigation\, urgent and radical reductions in emissions are essential eve
 n if a 4°C rise is to be avoided.\nFocussing on the emissions and science
  with regards to climate change is an increasingly melancholy affair. Howe
 ver\, whilst there is now little chance of avoiding significant climate ch
 ange\, early harnessing of human will and ingenuity may still offer opport
 unities to develop relatively low-carbon and climate-resilient communities
 . \n
LOCATION:4CMR board room
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