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SUMMARY:Decision making under indeterminacy - Robbie Williams (University 
 of Leeds)
DTSTART:20110428T153000Z
DTEND:20110428T170000Z
UID:TALK30719@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Nicky Reeves
DESCRIPTION:When making a decision\, sometimes we know what consequences e
 ach course of action will lead to. In other cases\, we have to act without
  being sure whether the action we take secures the outcome we want. Decisi
 on theory (à la Ramsey\, Savage\, Jeffrey) is an attempt to analyze such 
 situations.\n\nBut sometimes\, we know (under at least one description) wh
 at outcome will result from each course of action open to us\, but this is
  not enough to tell us whether what we want will be secured. This situatio
 n can be generated when our desires are formulated in terms infected with 
 vagueness\, indeterminacy and the like. For example\, you might wish to re
 frain from killing a living being\, but judge that there is 'no fact of th
 e matter' whether a destructive act counts as such a killing. Or you might
  want to secure good things for your future self\, but judge that it is in
 determinate whether the person who benefits from a given action is really 
 _you_.\n\nI will develop a model of rational action under indeterminacy\, 
 drawing on work on 'imprecise probabilities' (prominent advocates of this 
 as a model of uncertainty include Isaac Levi\, Richard Jeffrey and Bas van
  Fraassen). The story will recommend a certain kind of mixed or randomized
  action\, which fits nicely with a kind of 'inconstancy' that Crispin Wrig
 ht has long argued is characteristic of our judgements in borderline cases
  of vague predicates. The decision-rule I describe at first glance recomme
 nds certain kinds of inconsistent patterns of behaviour over time – I sh
 ow how it can be implemented to avoid this.\n\nFinally\, I'll apply the ma
 chinery developed to a touchstone puzzle of vagueness – the forced march
  sorites. The nice predictions it delivers here are evidence that the mode
 l of the conception of indeterminacy being developed is on the right track
 .
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Department of History and Philosophy of Science
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