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SUMMARY:Non-parametric regression with observations at imprecise times: Ba
 yesian radiocarbon calibration - Tim Heaton (Sheffield)
DTSTART:20110603T150000Z
DTEND:20110603T160000Z
UID:TALK30799@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Richard Nickl
DESCRIPTION:For accurate radiocarbon dating\, it is necessary to identify 
 fluctuations in\nthe level of radioactive carbon (14C) over time. The proc
 esses that give\nrise to these fluctuations are not understood and so a da
 tum-based\ncalibration curve is required. Historic material can provide us
  with\nobservations of radiocarbon levels at distinct times in the past\, 
 but in\nmany cases the precise age of this material is unknown and must it
 self be\nestimated.\n\nWith some exceptions\, the current non-parametric r
 egression literature\nconcentrates on the case where the times at which we
  observe the function\nare known precisely. In this talk we will present a
  general methodology for\nnon-parametric regression\, developed as part of
  this on-going radiocarbon\ncalibration work\, which can handle such impre
 cise time estimates.\n\nIn our approach\, the underlying function is model
 led as a Weiner process\nwith sample paths that are updated\, in light of 
 the imprecise data\, through\nuse of a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm. 
 This methodology is\ncomputationally efficient due to the independent incr
 ement property of the\nprocess and use of a Brownian bridge.\n\n\nhttp://m
 aths.dept.shef.ac.uk/pas/staff_info.php?id=289
LOCATION:MR12\, CMS\, Wilberforce Road\, Cambridge\, CB3 0WB
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