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SUMMARY:Savings Millions (lives and money) with Simulation Experiments - S
 chruben\, L (University of California\, Berkeley)
DTSTART:20110905T092000Z
DTEND:20110905T094500Z
UID:TALK32653@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:There are fundamental differences between real]world and compu
 ter simulation experiments. In simulations\, an experimenter has full cont
 rol over everything ] time\, uncertainty\, causality\, structure\, environ
 ment\, etc. This talk demonstrates how synergies in simulation experiments
 \, models\, codes\, and analysis sometimes make these indistinguishable. T
 his motivates us to revise two famous quotes about statistical modeling an
 d experimental design in the simulation context. George E. P. Box\, one of
  the most prolific statisticians in recent history\, is attributed with th
 e quote gAll models are wrong\; some are usefulh. A simulation model and e
 xperiment that is designed for a specific analytical purpose may be both m
 ore wrong and more useful. Sir R. A. Fisher\, credited as the creator of s
 tatistical experimental design\, is often quoted as saying\, gThe best tim
 e to design an experiment is after youfve run it.h The best time to design
  a simulation model and experiment is often while youfre running it. Examp
 les are presented where analysis]specific simulations and simulation]speci
 fic experiments have greatly improved the production and distribution of l
 ife]saving biopharmaceuticals. However\, the methods apply more generally 
 to production and service systems.\n
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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