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SUMMARY:Rotavirus vaccination: How modeling can help us understand impact 
 - Dr Virginia Pitzer\, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology\, Pr
 incetown University
DTSTART:20110921T153000Z
DTEND:20110921T163000Z
UID:TALK32818@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Suzy Blows
DESCRIPTION:The recent introduction of rotavirus vaccines into the nationa
 l immunization schedules of the United States and other countries has led 
 to substantial reductions in the incidence of severe diarrhea in children.
   However\, there is concern over whether indirect protection evident in t
 he short term will extend to the long term\, and whether the selective pre
 ssures imposed by vaccines will lead to the emergence of non-vaccine-type 
 strains.  Furthermore\, vaccine efficacy was found to be considerably lowe
 r in developing countries where the burden of rotavirus mortality is great
 est.  Using data-driven models for the transmission dynamics of rotavirus\
 , we generate predictions about indirect protection by relating individual
 -level protection offered by vaccines to population-level effects.  We com
 pare a variety of model structures to examine the sensitivity of predictio
 ns to assumptions about the basic epidemiology of disease.  Incorporating 
 the interaction of the five common rotavirus genotypes into a model offers
  insight into patterns of coexistence and genotype cycling apparent pre-va
 ccination\, and we hypothesize how existing vaccines may impact the distri
 bution of prevailing genotypes.  Finally\, we use models to explore possib
 le explanations for observed differences in vaccine efficacy between devel
 oped and developing countries.
LOCATION:Lecture Theatre 1\, Department of Veterinary Medicine
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