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SUMMARY:Persistence and the control of bovine tuberculosis in Great Britai
 n - Andrew Conlan (Vet School)
DTSTART:20111010T110000Z
DTEND:20111010T120000Z
UID:TALK33677@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
DESCRIPTION:The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions 
 in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis
  (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an inten
 sive and costly test-and-slaughter control programme. Around 38% of herds 
 in GB that clear movement restrictions will experience a recurrent inciden
 t within 24 months. A major risk factor for a herd being diagnosed with bT
 B is previous disease in that herd\; yet the relative contributions due to
  within-herd persistence and re-introduction from outside the herd have no
 t been determined. Here\, we apply epidemiological models parameterised fr
 om VetNet data to infer the contribution of missed infection to the observ
 ed empirical patterns of within-herd persistence of bTB in GB. Our best fi
 tting model\, that is most consistent with experimental evidence\, estimat
 es that the probability of infection remaining after a herd has been decla
 red “bTB free” increases with herd size\, up to a maximum of ~15%. How
 ever\, the impact of missed infection is very small compared to the extrin
 sic rate of transmission into the herd. As a consequence\, while ongoing e
 fforts to improve current imperfect diagnostic tests may be able to reduce
  the duration of bTB breakdowns\, they are unlikely to reduce recurrence u
 nless the sources of extrinsic transmission into herds are simultaneously 
 addressed.
LOCATION:DD47\, Cripps Court\, Queens' College
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