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SUMMARY:From Integration to Confrontation: Economic Globalization\, Power 
 Convergence\, and International Conflict - David Blagden\, POLIS
DTSTART:20121030T131000Z
DTEND:20121030T140000Z
UID:TALK40031@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Xinyi Liu
DESCRIPTION:Deepening economic globalization between major powers has long
  been viewed as a force for international stability. The causal logic is a
 ppealing intuitively: states that are trading with and investing in each o
 ther stand to lose if that commerce is jeopardised by international confli
 ct. Yet there are sound reasons for supposing that such deepening economic
  globalization can also shift the balance of power between major states\, 
 by causing follower economies – states that are not among the most devel
 oped in the international system – to grow faster than leading economies
 \, and economic size and development are what underpin national material c
 apabilities. Moreover\, a rich body of international relations theory and 
 an array of historical experience suggest that such shifts in the balance 
 of power make interstate war more likely. \n\nThis lecture argues\, theref
 ore\, that economic globalization can actually be a potent cause of major 
 power security competition and ultimately war. A theoretical framework tha
 t unites economic theory on the differential growth impact of trade\, fina
 ncial flows\, and technology diffusion with realist arguments on the confl
 ict implications of polarity shifts and dynamic power differentials is con
 structed. It is then explored using evidence from three key historical epo
 chs that\, while different in their levels of economic modernity and the p
 recise character of the international commerce\, all share certain similar
 ities: an expansion of trade and other factor flows\, a consequential shif
 t in the balance of material power\, and subsequent strategic competition 
 and military conflict. The three cases in question are the rise of the Dut
 ch Republic during the 1581-1648 period (and its subsequent decline in the
  1672-1795 period)\, the relative decline of the United Kingdom and the re
 lative rise of other great powers between 1870 and 1914\, and the differen
 tial growth rates and corresponding security tensions of 1945-89. Certain 
 scope conditions and qualifications notwithstanding\, the empirical eviden
 ce supports the theoretical framework. As such\, the argument that deepeni
 ng economic globalization raises the mutual cost of fighting and thereby m
 akes conflict less likely is not directly refuted\, but an important count
 ervailing mechanism is found to be at work. Such a finding has important i
 mplications for the foundations of realist international relations theory\
 , the debate over the security implications of contemporary globalization\
 , and understandings of the causes and potential consequences of the rise 
 of new great powers in the current era of declining Western dominance. \n\
 nDavid Blagden will join Darwin as the Adrian Research Fellow in Internati
 onal Politics in October. His talk today is based on his DPhil dissertatio
 n\, completed at University College\, Oxford\, which he has just submitted
 .
LOCATION:The Richard King Room\, Darwin College
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