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SUMMARY:Investigating biodiversity responses to climate change: the benefi
 ts of hindsight -  Francisco Rodriguez-Sanchez\, Forest Ecology and Conser
 vation
DTSTART:20121019T120000Z
DTEND:20121019T123000Z
UID:TALK40555@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:24938
DESCRIPTION:Climate change is challenging the predictive ability of ecolog
 ists\, evolutionary biologists and scientists as a whole. We are urged to 
 anticipate the impacts in order to attempt mitigation\, but reliable forec
 asts of the future dynamics of biodiversity are elusive. In contrast\, ret
 rospective studies can provide key insights based on a better knowledge of
  species responses to past climate changes. To date\, this retrospective k
 nowledge has mostly been based on the fossil record\, genetic data (phylog
 eography) and hindcasting of species distribution models. Despite the inva
 luable contributions of these approaches\, all of them suffer from particu
 lar biases and assumptions that limit the reach of their inferences. A rig
 orous way to overcome this problem is to integrate multiple data sources i
 nto a single statistical framework that explicitly accounts for the biases
  and intrinsic limitations of different disciplines. Upon this rationale\,
  we have developed a dynamic\, process-based model of species range dynami
 cs that\, by means of Bayesian data assimilation\, exploits information fr
 om multiple sources. This quantitative framework is enabling us to better 
 understand how European trees responded to past climate changes in terms o
 f migration\, regional extinction or persistence in previously unknown ref
 ugia. Hence\, integrative reconstructions of the past represent a promisin
 g way to promote ecological understanding and improve predictions of futur
 e impacts of climate change on Earth’s biodiversity.
LOCATION:Department of Plant Sciences\, Large Lecture Theatre
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