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SUMMARY:Spatial dynamics\, loss of immunity and the adult carriage of Pert
 ussis - Andrew Conlan (Vet School)
DTSTART:20121008T103000Z
DTEND:20121008T113000Z
UID:TALK40776@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
DESCRIPTION:Whooping cough\, a respiratory infection caused by the bacteri
 um Bordetalla Pertussis\, is re-emerging globally after decades of control
  through infant vaccination. In the UK we are experiencing the worst epide
 mic in 20 years\, with over 5000 cases reported this year and 9 deaths. Im
 munity to re-infection with Pertussis has long been known to be imperfect.
  However\, as reporting is heavily biased towards primary infections in ch
 ildren\, there is considerable debate as to the extent to which adult carr
 iage of Pertussis contributes to silent transmission.\n\nUsing an extensiv
 e data set of pre- and post-vaccination incidence in England and Wales we 
 use transfer entropy to identify spatial hierarchies of transmission of pe
 rtussis in the pre-vaccination era. We use this information\, and measures
  of stochastic persistence\, to parameterise a mechanistic meta-population
  model of transmission using Approximate Baysian Compuation (ABC). We vali
 date our fitted model through prediction of the impact of vaccination and 
 cross-validation with a equivalent model for measles where immunity to rei
 nfection is known to be life-long.\n\nWe find no evidence that adult carri
 age of pertussis contributed to the epidemic dynamics of pertussis before\
 , or immediately after the introduction of vaccination. In addition\, we a
 lso find that the newly proposed radiation law of human migration can perf
 orm as well\, if not better\, than traditional gravity models in explainin
 g the spatial dynamics of childhood diseases.
LOCATION:CC43\, Cripps Court\, Queens' College
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