BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Understanding uncertainty in computer simulations with an applicat
 ion in global aerosol modelling - Dr Lindsay Lee (University of Leeds)
DTSTART:20130218T141500Z
DTEND:20130218T153000Z
UID:TALK41908@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Amanda Maycock
DESCRIPTION:In this talk I will begin by discussing the sources of uncerta
 inty in simulations made from computer models and using statistics to help
  understand the effects of uncertainty on computer model predictions. I wi
 ll then present the work we have been doing in Leeds applying statistical 
 techniques to runs of a global aerosol model in order to understand and qu
 antify the effect of parametric uncertainty on model predictions of aeroso
 l particles important for cloud formation and model predictions of the aer
 osol indirect radiative forcing.  In particular\, I will talk about the us
 e of statistical emulation and sensitivity analysis. I will show global ma
 ps and time series of the regional and seasonal sources of uncertainty in 
 global aerosol modelling and their global significance.  The results show 
 where more effort is needed to reduce uncertainty in global aerosol modell
 ing and its effect on the climate as well as helping us to understand the 
 model itself. The work has also helped us to identify irreducible model er
 rors which can now be quantified. I will also introduce the next stage of 
 the work in which we will attempt model calibration taking into account th
 e model parametric uncertainty.
LOCATION:Unilever Lecture Theatre\, Department of Chemistry
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR