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SUMMARY:Populating 19th century Siam: war/capture/resettlement versus the 
 recruitment of free labour in a southeast Asian demographic system - Dr Am
 ornrat Bunnag\, Academic Officer\, Centre of Doctrine and Strategic Develo
 pment\, Army Training Command\, Bangkok.
DTSTART:20130128T124500Z
DTEND:20130128T140000Z
UID:TALK42122@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Romola Davenport
DESCRIPTION:The Kingdom of Siam is one of several important Southeast Asia
 n states that formed around the 12th century and continued in various form
 s to the present. Population numbers in the Siamese Kingdom are mostly a m
 atter of conjecture since virtually all records were destroyed in the sack
 ing of Ayudhya in 1767 by Burmese armies. Even for the time since the king
 dom was reestablished and the Chakri Dynasty formed in 1782\, the record i
 s fragmented and incomplete throughout the 19th century and until about 19
 20 (a census was conducted in 1909-1910\, and vital registration began in 
 1920). Nineteenth century demography is known largely by two means: popula
 tion estimates (the whole kingdom\, and sometimes for certain geographic a
 reas\, or for language groups) reported by contemporary foreign “travele
 rs” (ambassadors\, businessmen\, preachers and the like) based on what t
 hey could glean from the royal records without actually seeing them. The r
 esulting population estimates are so inconsistent that some investigators 
 have posited their own series of population totals based on extrapolations
  backward from the time series that began in 1920.\n\nThis work of extrapo
 lation\, if it is to be more than merely mechanical curve fitting of some 
 sort\, requires substantive assumptions about fertility and mortality patt
 erns and levels\, and these have always been founded upon prevailing views
  of typical “developing country” situations. That is\, in the absence 
 of evidence to the contrary\, fertility has always been assumed to have be
 en rather high (TFR at 6 or greater) and mortality at levels high enough t
 o be consistent with that and population growth rates.\n\nHowever\, in the
  case of Siam a new reading of the existing literature and a new look at t
 he archival evidence spanning the long 19th century suggests an alternativ
 e and quite different scenario. The speaker has carried out extensive rese
 arch in the Kingdom’s archives\, and offers a view of population changes
  based upon indirect methods of analysis (demographic models) linked with 
 political\, socioeconomic\, and cultural evidence. Two contrasting scenari
 os regarding population and the components of population changes were firs
 t established based on the historical evidence. Then these scenarios were 
 modeled using ‘POPULATE’\, a software program that expresses the mathe
 matics of the population renewal equation and the method of Generalized In
 verse Projection.  The results were then judged on their internal consiste
 ncy and compared with other evidence. \n \nThese scenarios—a Migration-B
 ased Demographic System (MDS) scenario and a Classic Demographic Transitio
 n (CDT) scenario–suggest alternate paths of fertility\, mortality\, and 
 migration between 1782 and 1960. In the migration-based scenario fertility
  is at a moderate level (held down by the disturbances of frequent warfare
 )\, mortality is high\, and migration maintains the population balance. Th
 is scenario matches very well with historical events in the Bangkok Period
  including dramatic political\, socioeconomic and cultural changes. Among 
 these was the termination around 1850 of a warfare based system of forced 
 population resettlement\, and the rapid rise thereafter of spontaneous in-
 migration from neighboring territories and from Southern China\, in respon
 se to the dramatic expansion of commercial wet-rice agriculture. \n\nThe i
 ssues discussed and the alternative models presented highlight the importa
 nce of any empirical\, archival evidence for the 19th century that can be 
 uncovered. The speaker will describe her work with a set of household-base
 d corvee registers\, the Tabien Hangwow\, covering selected areas and year
 s. These have not been examined previously for demographic purposes. 
LOCATION:Seminar Room\, Main Building\, Dept of Geography 
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