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SUMMARY:Possible impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on surface climat
 e - Amanda Maycock (University of Cambridge)
DTSTART:20130213T140000Z
DTEND:20130213T150000Z
UID:TALK42552@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Scott Hosking
DESCRIPTION:Reconstructions indicate that levels of solar activity have be
 en relatively high for the past 70 years\, and it has been suggested that 
 the Sun might evolve towards a state of lower output over the next 50-100 
 years. This \nstudy presents sensitivity experiments with a state-of-the-a
 rt climate model to investigate the impact of reaching very low levels of 
 solar output\, similar to those thought to have occurred during the Maunde
 r \nMinimum\, by the middle of the 21st century. We also investigate the i
 mportance of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) changes by conducting two set
 s of experiments which span the current uncertainty in ultraviolet (UV) \n
 solar irradiance variability.\n\nThe results show that\, whilst the overal
 l impact on global mean temperature is small\, such a decrease in solar ac
 tivity over the 21st century has the potential to modify the winter-time s
 ignal of anthropogenic climate change in western Europe through modulation
  of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The amplitude of the signal depends on
  the assumed magnitude of UV variability in the model\, thereby highlighti
 ng that constraining SSI variability remains a key factor for understandin
 g solar influences on climate.\n
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Room 307
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