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SUMMARY:Land use / land cover change and malaria risk in the Amazon region
  - Denis Valle\, Levine Science Research Center (LSRC)
DTSTART:20130205T090000Z
DTEND:20130205T100000Z
UID:TALK43310@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Microsoft Research Cambridge Talks Admins
DESCRIPTION:Large-scale forest conservation projects are underway in the A
 mazon region but little is known regarding their public health impact. Cur
 rent literature emphasizes how land clearing increases malaria incidence\,
  leading to the conclusion that forest conservation decreases malaria burd
 en. Yet\, there is also evidence that proximity to forest fringes increase
 s malaria incidence\, which implies the opposite relationship between fore
 st conservation and malaria. \n\nIn this presentation\, I will report find
 ings from a detailed individual-level study conducted in a rural settlemen
 t area in Acre State and from a analysis of malaria data encompassing an u
 nprecedented geographical scale (~4.5 million km2). We show that proximity
  to forest fringes substantially enhance malaria risk\, much more so than 
 land clearing (the often cited culprit of malaria in the region). We find 
 that cities close to protected areas (PA’s) tend to have higher malaria 
 incidence than cities far from PA’s. Using future LULC scenarios\, we sh
 ow that avoiding 10% of deforestation through better governance might resu
 lt in an average 2-fold increase in malaria incidence by 2050 in urban hea
 lth posts.\n\nOur results suggest that cost analysis of reduced carbon emi
 ssions from conservation efforts in the region should account for increase
 d malaria morbidity\, and that conservation initiatives should consider ad
 opting malaria mitigation strategies. Coordinated actions from disparate s
 cience fields\, government ministries\, and global initiatives\, will be r
 equired to decrease malaria toll in the region while preserving these impo
 rtant ecosystems.
LOCATION:Auditorium\, Microsoft Research Ltd\, 21 Station Road\, Cambridge
 \, CB1 2FB
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